For over 200 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has been predicting long-range weather forecasts to help you plan ahead.
These forecasts are created using a tried-and-true formula that adapts to the mysteries of nature and the ever-changing world in which we live. The basis of our prediction method was developed by our founding editor according to correlations between celestial events and various meteorological conditions.
Today this formula uses some of the original rules set forth back in 1818, but also accounts for fluctuations in the environment on Earth, as well as sunspots, the motion of the Moon, and other proprietary factors.
Forecast for the Southwest
For the 2025-2026 winter, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts the Southwest (including AZ, CA, NV, NM, West Texas) will generally experience warmer-than-normal temperatures with below-normal precipitation, though some areas, like the eastern Desert Southwest, might see above-average rainfall and heavier mountain snows. Expect drier spells, but with potentially wet periods in January and stormiest times in late November, mid-January, and late February, with the coldest periods in late January and February.
Key Forecast Points for the Southwest:
Temperatures: Overall warmer than normal, with the coldest snaps in late January and February.
Precipitation: Drier than average, but eastern parts of the Desert Southwest could see above-average rainfall.
Snowfall: Below-normal mountain snows expected in the Pacific Southwest.
Stormy Periods: Late November, mid-January, and late February are flagged as potentially stormier.
January Specifics: Warm, rainy spells early in the month, with potential for snow in eastern areas, and sunny but cold conditions later on.
In Summary: Expect a milder winter for the Southwest, generally drier, but with some chances for moisture and colder bursts, especially towards the end of the season.